Topic #2: Twins Payroll

This year the Twins brought us some tremendous highs. Who would have figured in early June that 35,000 fans would stay after the final game of the season to watch the Royals play the Tigers with the Twins chance of winning the division on the line? At that time the Twins regularly played Sierra, T-Bat, and no-Bat (or Juan Castro as he goes by in the Senior, though junior in everyway, Circuit). Then our mighty Twinks pulled off the incredible run that made this past summer so enjoyable. Unfortunately the postseason left something to be desired. Now that this season is over, it’s time to look to the future.

The first question to be asked was, should the Twins exercise the option on Torii Hunter, let him go, or sign him to a long-term deal? While Hunter has a number of large holes, namely his pitch selection, I feel the signing was reasonable for a few reasons. 1. He played well down the stretch when the Twins needed him. 2. He is still the face of the franchise. Though it is changing to Santana, Mauer, and Morneau, for now, Hunter is still the guy. 3. The Twins were given their new stadium, so they felt they had to spend their money on somebody. While I feel the Twins were justified in exercising his option, I felt that there was no way they could sign him to a longer term deal with the raises a number of players are due in the coming years. This led me to a couple of other questions. Who will the Twins be able to keep, what might their contracts look like, and is there room to sign anybody else?

For the first question, I attempted to predict what the team would look like for the next five years using our current players and players from the minors. While I know this is not what will happen, the Twins do have a track record of resigning their players and promoting from the minors. In evaluating minor league talent, I used the website Battle Your Tail Off (BYTO) http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/minorblog/ which did more work than I could ever do at evaluating players in the Twins minor league system. Looking through the information on the site, the Twins have a plethora of talent in pitching and an obvious lack of talent in position areas which led to some forecasts that I sincerely doubt will be correct (such as Nick Punto as the Twins third baseman for the next five years).

For the second question, what might their contracts look like, I used comparables to determine the players salaries for the coming years. I primarily used Twins comparables, but where there were no obvious comparisons, I looked to other teams.

The third question, is there room to sign anybody else, was then a result of the first two. The results are as follows:

Future Rosters:

Twins 2007:
To determine next year’s team I figured the Twins would not sign Brad Radke, Phil Nevin, Shannon Stewart, and Rondell White (though he may be an option for one year). Other than that, all of the other players on the 2007 squad are from this year’s team. The team is setup as follows:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Luis Castillo
SS Jason Bartlett
3B Nick Punto
LF Jason Kubel
CF Torii Hunter
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Tyner
C2 Mike Redmond
IF5 Luis Rodriguez
OF4 Lew Ford
IF/OF Josh Rabe
SP1 Carlos Santana
SP2 Francisco Liriano
SP3 Boof Bonser
SP4 Matt Garza
SP5 Carlos Silva
LHR Dennys Reyes
LHR Glen Perkins
RHR Matt Guerrier
RHR Pat Neshek
RHR Jessie Crain
RHR Juan Rincon
CL Joe Nathan

There should really be no surprises here. The Twins will either exercise the option on Silva or go after a back-of-the-rotation starter, use Jason Kubel or Rondell White in left (with Tyner as another option), and Tyner or a right-handed free agent at DH. The Twins will probably also use Scott Baker and Willie Eyre in the bullpen over Glen Perkins early in the season, but I think he has too much talent to stay in the minors all of next year. The biggest weaknesses in my mind are Tyner and Kubel. Nick Punto may also be an issue for the future, but unless Matt Moses or David Winfree really step up or the Twins make a trade, he’s our guy.

Changes for 2008:
2B Alexi Casilla
CF Trent Oeltje
OF4 Alex Romero
SP3 Garza
SP4 Perkins
SP5 Bonser
LHR Alexander Smit

I feel the Twins will let Luis Castillo go after 2007 to open up a spot, and save some money, for Alexi Casilla. I also think Hunter will be gone as well, he’s just too much money when the Twins want to sign their younger, better players. In his place I looked to BYTO which ranks Trent Oeltjen ahead of Denard Span as a more likely candidate to be our centerfielder (BYTO disagrees with me and thinks the Twins will resign Hunter). Alex Romero takes over for Lew Ford as a backup outfielder. Matt Garza moves up on the depth chart and Perkins moves into the starting rotation for Silva. Eduardo Morlan moves into the bullpen to fill Perkins spot.

Changes for 2009:
DH Erik Lis
IF5 Whitney Robbins
SP5 Anthony Swarzak
LHR ???
RHR Yohan Pino
RHR Eduardo Morlan
RHR Kevin Slowey
CL Neshek

Erik Lis takes over the DH role from Tyner. Whitney Robbins moves into the backup infielder role in place of Rodriguez. Anthony Swarzak moves into the rotation in place of Bonser. (This is no knock on Bonser, he was arguably our best pitcher down the stretch, but the other guys just have incredible talent. I would love it if the other guys are as good as advertised, but Bonser holds them off.). Pat Neshek moves to the closer role for Joe Nathan (an unfortunate salary casualty). I also don’t see the Twins resigning Reyes. I think he will either be too expensive, or he will regress to his old self, leaving a left-handed whole in the bullpen. Yohan Pino, Eduardo Moalan, and Kevin Slowey move into the bullpen replacing Rincon (salary), Crain (salary), and Perkins (moved to closer). I also have the Twins resigning Mike Redmond as the backup catcher. While he will be getting older, the Twins do not have anybody in the minors to replace him.

Changes for 2010 (aka The Year of the New Stadium)
RF Chris Parmelee
IF/OF Garrett Olson

Chris Parmelee takes over for Michael Cuddyer rightfield and Garrett Olson takes over Josh Rabe our backup infielder/outfielder. If you look, this is very similar to the projection by BYTO. I used their site as my primary reference for player evaluation and focused my efforts on salary.

The 2011 lineup looks the same as the 2010 lineup only a year more expensive.

Salaries:

For salary information I used the site http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ to see current salaries along with comparables. For most of the young players I used three years for arbitration, with the exception of Liriano, Garza, and Bonser who I considered “Super Twos.” For more information on arbitration, check out http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/pa/info/faq.jsp.

Comparables:

• Mauer and Morneau – David Wright was the closest comparison. While Mauer and Morneau will not sign the exact same deal, I figured it was a good approximation.
• Hunter plays out his contract and moves on after next year.
• Cuddyer – Hunter’s current contract. I used Hunter’s contract as a basis and subtracted a bit each year since Hunter was an all-star at the time he signed.
• Punto – I had a tough time coming up with a comparable, so I gave him $1MM raises year over year. He will most likely end up either as the Twins starter and make a larger salary than I gave him or become the backup with a lower salary.
• Ford, Redmond, and Tyner – $1MM per year similar to the deal Redmond just signed.
• Bartlett and Kubel – Cuddyer’s salary over his career up to now for the first four years. Slightly less than what Cuddyer will make with his next contract for the following years due to Cuddyer’s larger power numbers.
• Rabe, Casilla, Oeltjen, Parmelee, Lis, Rodriguez, Robbins, Romero, and Olson – Cuddyer’s salary over his career up to now.
• Santana – Roger Clemens was the closest comparable. There is nobody like Santana in baseball so I gave him $20MM per year (Clemens signed for a prorated salary of $22MM).
• Nathan, Silva and Reyes play out their contracts and move on to other teams.
• Liriano and Garza – If these guys live up to their billing, they are the next Johan Santanas. While it will be nearly impossible to live up to that billing, the players have been named Minor League Player of the Year the last two years respectively.
• Perkins, Bonser and Smit – Carlos Silva adjusted for salary inflation. Keep in mind that before Silva signed his contract and went into the tank he was considered a solid middle-of-the-rotation option.
• Crain – Minimum next year followed by $2MM in ‘08
• Guerrier – I had a tough time for Guerrier as well, so I gave him the minimum followed by $1MM, $1MM, $2MM, and $2MM.
• Neshek – Joe Nathan’s salaries.
• Swarzak, LHR, Pino, Morlan, and Slowey – Major League minimum

The salaries for each player are listed below:

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Mauer	1	5	7.5	10	14
Morneau	1	5	7.5	10	14
Castillo	5.75
Casilla		0.35	0.35	0.35	1
Bartlett	0.35	0.35	1	3	4
Punto	1.5	2	3	4	5
Kubel	0.35	0.35	1	3	4
Hunter	12
Oeltjen		0.35	0.35	0.35	1
Cuddyer	4	5	7
Parmelee				0.35	0.35
Tyner	1	1
Lis			0.35	0.35	0.35
Redmond	1	1	1	1	1
Rodriguez	0.35	0.5
Robbins			0.35	0.35	0.35
Ford	1
Romero		0.35	0.35	0.35	1
Rabe	0.35	0.35	1
Olson				0.35	0.35
Santana	12	13.25	20	20	20
Liriano	0.35	2	6	10	14
Bonser	0.35	2
Garza	0.35	2	6	10	14
Perkins	0.35	0.35	0.35	2	4
Silva	4
Swarzak			0.35	0.35	0.35
Reyes	1	1
Smit		0.35	0.35	0.35	2
LHR			0.35	0.35	0.35
Guerrier	0.35	1	1	2	2
Pino			0.35	0.35	0.35
Neshek	0.35	0.35	2	4	5
Crain	0.35	2
Morlan			0.35	0.35	0.35
Rincon	2	4
Slowey			0.35	0.35	0.35
Nathan	5.25	6
Total	57	60.2	70	83.3	110.9

Free Agents:

After analyzing the information above, I felt I could answer my third question, is there room to sign anybody else?

The totals above cover the 25-man, not 40-man roster, so they are bit lower than the total salary the Twins will cover. The Twins team salary this year was around $63MM and they said that they were thinking it would increase to $68MM next year, and I assume a similar if not slightly larger number in 2008 and 2009. Terry Ryan has stated that in 2010 there should be around $20MM more to spend on salaries than today, or $83MM.

Based on these numbers, it looks like the Twins have room to sign a player for two years or trade for a player with two years remaining on his contract. After that however, the Twins will really be up against the wall. The salary for 2011 is way above anything that the Twins would be willing to pay and will not happen. If Liriano, Garza, Bonser, Swarzak, Slowey or any number of other pitchers step up and give the Twins a solid rotation, I can see them trading or not resigning Santana; I just think he will be too expensive. I also see the Twins trading some pitchers for position prospects to fill in for players like Punto, Kubel, and Tyner. I also feel that with all of our pitching depth, it will be more important to resign the bats of Mauer and Morneau if they continue to contribute the way they did this year.

Any way you look at it, the Twins have a solid foundation with five legitimate All-Stars (Santana, Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, and Liriano) and should be good for years to come. I would love to see us add talent where available, but I just don’t see us breaking the bank to bring in the talent of somebody like Alfonso Soriano. I think we are in great shape and can’t wait for next summer, and really cannot wait for 2010.